Tracking PA's 'Blue Wave' in the Senate
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Tracking PA's 'Blue Wave' in the Senate
As part of a series on the upcoming election, an urban demographer looks at how the state Senate races are likely to play out
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Stories from Jonathan Tannen
Tracking PA's 'Bluish Wave' in the Senate
Equally part of a series on the upcoming election, an urban demographer looks at how the state Senate races are likely to play out
Aug. 28, 2018
Earlier, I looked at the composition of the Pennsylvania Business firm . The message: it could be in play, but simply in the nigh extreme moving ridge election. How about the Pennsylvania Senate? It's much safer for Republicans. How close could it become?
The Composition of the PA Senate
The Senate has fifty members, who serve four-year terms. That means 25 are up for election in November. Currently, the Senate is lopsided: 34 Republicans versus 16 Democrats (in a Land that was evenly dissever in the 2022 election). Among those elected in 2014 and up for reelection, 18 are Republicans, and vii Democrats. Nine of those 2014 races were uncontested, including iv Democrats and five Republicans.
To even the Senate, Democrats demand to pick up nine seats. That'due south a steep, steep job with but half of the districts on the ballot. Suppose we assume a Democratic swing of xvi points from 2014. Only three of the districts won by Republicans would switch parties. Another three districts went Republican by between sixteen and 20 points. Of course, some of those uncontested districts could exist in play too.
Alternatively, utilize the 2022 Presidential Election as a guide: at that place are seven districts that voted for Republican Senators in 2014 but for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and 1 that voted for a Democratic Senator but for Donald Trump. V of those districts are in Philadelphia's suburbs.
District by Commune
Below is a breakdown of the districts with 2022 elections. I've cleaved them into chunks based on the party of the current Senator, and whether they voted for Clinton or for Trump. Below, I nowadays each district's 2022 results (as the two-party vote, meaning excluding tertiary parties and non-votes), and turnout in the 2014 and 2022 primaries.
First, the 7 districts with Republican senators defending seats that voted for Clinton.
There is one commune that'due south the opposite, with a Democratic Senator but which Trump won.
There are 11 Republican Senators in districts that Trump did win. Three of those are inside a 16 indicate swing.
Finally, there are vi Democratic Senators defending districts that also voted for Hillary.
Could the Senate be in play?
Democrats would need to gain 9 seats to even upwards the State Senate. To pull that off, they would have to win all but one of the ten districts that either (a) voted for Clinton or (b) were inside a 16 point gap in 2014. That's a long shot. But even a less lopsided Senate could have a big impact on state politics, and gains at present could set up a existent Senate challenge when the other 25 senators are up for election in 2020.
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Source: https://thephiladelphiacitizen.org/tracking-pas-blue-wave-in-the-senate/
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